Mon, 07 Apr 2025

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 Is the world heading into recession?

The US president has rattled stock markets but that doesn't automatically lead to an economic downturn.

* Large falls in stock market values indicate a fundamental reappraisal of future profits, with investors expecting costs and profits to fall due to Trump's tariffs.
* The chances of recession have increased significantly, but it is still unclear if a recession will occur.
* The UK economy has not yet met the definition of a recession, which requires two successive three-month periods of economic shrinkage.
* Bank shares, such as HSBC and Standard Chartered, have fallen by over 10%, indicating concerns about international trade.
* Copper and oil prices have also fallen by over 15% since Trump's tariff announcement, serving as barometers of global economic health.
* Most economists now consider it likely that the US, UK, and European Union will experience a recession, although a truly global recession is considered unlikely.
* The government's borrowing costs are expected to dip by £5-6 billion per year due to increased demand for government bonds, but this will be offset by reduced tax receipts if the economy enters recession.
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