Tue, 02 Dec 2025

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 Reeves speech did not mislead on challenges facing UK ahead of Budget, says OBR official

Prof David Miles tells MPs the messaging given by the chancellor was "not inconsistent" with the situation she faced.

* Prof David Miles, a senior official at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), said he doesn't think Chancellor Rachel Reeves was being misleading when she described the state of public finances as "very challenging" before the Budget.
* The OBR's economic forecasts revealed that the country's finances were better than widely thought, but Prof Miles said this didn't mean the chancellor faced an easy decision-making process.
* Prof Miles said the OBR raised concerns with Treasury officials about leaks to the media in the run-up to the Budget and released a letter to correct "misconceptions" about its forecasts.
* The OBR's former chairman, Richard Hughes, resigned over a Budget day error that saw the watchdog's official forecast document published early.
* A political row has broken out over information shared with the public about the health of the economy and the choices required by the chancellor.
* The OBR told the Treasury on October 31 that it was on course to meet its main borrowing rule by £4.2bn, but Chancellor Reeves did not mention this in her pre-Budget speech or press conference.
* Prof Miles said the impression provided by the chancellor during her press conference was "not misleading" and that the fiscal position was indeed very challenging.
* The OBR's forecast showed a wafer-thin buffer of £4.2bn, which is less than the £9.9bn left at the previous Budget, and Prof Miles said this posed a significant challenge to the government.
* The so-called "headroom" chancellors have left themselves has been smaller in recent years, prior to November 2022 it was around £20-30bn.
  >>