Fri, 12 Dec 2025

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 Venezuela says Trump wants its oil. But is that the case?

The South American nation's output has plummeted and restoring its former glory would be a heavy lift.
Venezuela's oil reserves, estimated at 303 billion barrels, are a key factor in the US pressure on President Nicolás Maduro. However, experts argue that the country's current output is tiny compared to its potential, producing only about 860,000 barrels per day. The US has imposed sanctions on Venezuela since 2015, aiming to curb Maduro's access to a key economic lifeline. Despite this, some Western oil firms, including Chevron, are still active in the country. Analysts say that if the US were to lift its barriers against dealing with Venezuela, Chevron would be among those best-placed to benefit. However, restoring Venezuela's oil industry to its former glory would require significant investment and potentially decades of effort. Improved management and modest investments could help boost oil production in Venezuela to about two million barrels per day over the next two years, but this would still take tens of billions of dollars. Experts warn that companies may be put off by potential complications such as membership in OPEC or declining demand for oil due to growing renewable energy sources. The US claims that its main priority is stopping the flow of illegal drugs from Venezuela, not seizing its oil reserves. However, analysts point out that the White House has said it is concerned about drug trafficking and what it sees as Maduro's illegitimacy. Some in the US have made the case for intervention in Venezuela by pointing to opportunities for American businesses to revive the oil industry. Florida Republican congresswoman María Elvira Salazar said that "Venezuela, for the American oil companies, will be a field day" and that American companies can go in and fix all the oil pipes and rigs. But analysts say that even if US barriers were lifted, it's not clear how willing companies would be to commit the time and money required to bring Venezuela's oil back online. They argue that private companies are only likely to invest if it is profitable.
  >>