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Sun, 15 Mar 2026

Sun, 15 Mar 2026 'Gruesome' war bets fuel calls for crackdown on prediction markets

Predictions markets have hosted millions of dollars of bets related to the war in Iran.

* Prediction markets, led by firms like Kalshi and Polymarket, have exploded in popularity with over $44bn in trades, allowing users to bet on various events including politics and military actions.
* Critics argue that these platforms facilitate unseemly war profiteering, national security risks, and insider trading, calling for a crackdown on the apps.
* The firms claim they are legitimate financial exchanges, but critics say they are sports betting and gambling operations trying to avoid stricter rules and taxes faced by traditional gaming firms.
* Disagreement over who should regulate these platforms has sparked dozens of legal battles across the US, with states asserting their right to regulate them like other gaming firms.
* Suspiciously timed bets related to military operations involving Iran, Venezuela, and Israel have added fodder to those calls for regulation.
* The Biden administration's proposed ban on sports and politics-related event contracts stalled after a court defeat and the 2024 election of Donald Trump, who came to power promising a lighter hand.
* Prediction market firms, including Polymarket and Kalshi, have announced steps to more formally police suspicious activity, but the odds of a crackdown remain long.