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Mon, 20 Apr 2026

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 The insider trading suspicions looming over Trump's presidency

The BBC has found a pattern of spikes in trades ahead of public announcements by the US president.
1. US-Israel war with Iran: On a phone interview with CBS News, Trump said the conflict was "very complete, pretty much" 9 days into the US-Israel war with Iran. Market data shows that oil traders placed huge bets on the price of oil falling at 18:29 GMT - 47 minutes before the reporter's post. 2. Tariffs announcement: On April 2 last year, Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs on goods from practically every country in the world. Stock markets around the globe plunged. However, an unusually high number of bets preceded this event with over 10,000 contracts traded per minute just after 18:00 BST. 3. 90-day pause on tariffs: A week later, Trump announced a 90-day "pause" on the levies for all countries, except China. Stock markets soared, with the benchmark S&P 500 index jumping by 9.5% - one of its largest single-day gains since the Second World War. 4. Iran ceasefire: On a US-Iran ceasefire announcement on April 7, an unusually high number of bets preceded this event with some traders betting over $2m on the stock market increasing that day. 5. Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro ousting: In December 2025, one user created an account on Polymarket called Burdensome-Mix and placed a bet on Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro being out of office by the end of January 2026. When Maduro was seized by US special forces and ousted the following day, Burdensome-Mix won $436,000.