Stories

Tue, 23 Jun 2026

Tue, 23 Jun 2026 Ten years on, Brexit's economic impact is becoming clearer

A decade ago, many economists argued the UK would sustain longer-term economic damage by leaving the EU. So what did happen?
1. Studies estimate economic loss: Research suggests that the UK economy is around 3-8% smaller than it would have been without Brexit. 2. Brexit uncertainty hits business decisions: A special survey of thousands of firms, created by the Bank of England in 2016, shows how prolonged Brexit uncertainty hit commercial decision-making. 3. Global economic landscape has changed: The article notes that the world has changed significantly since 2016, with new trade barriers and a more volatile global economy. 4. Question marks over UK-EU relationship: The article raises questions about whether the UK should align itself with the US or maintain a closer relationship with the EU. 5. Post-Brexit deal still uncertain: The status quo is unlikely to hold, as various parties have vowed to rip up the government's EU reset or try to row back on elements of the post-Brexit deal. The article also highlights some specific issues that are relevant to the current state of Brexit negotiations: 1. UK-EU summit postponed: The next UK-EU summit has been postponed, which may affect efforts to seal a deal on food and farm trade. 2. Government red lines under review: Government ministers have begun to quietly suggest that their post-Brexit red lines may be reviewed in the future. 3. Potential for new Brexit deal: Some parties are exploring the possibility of a Swiss-style deal or rejoining the customs union. Overall, the article suggests that Brexit remains a contentious and uncertain issue, with ongoing negotiations and potential changes to the current situation.