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Fri, 18 Sep 2026

Fri, 18 Sep 2026 'We simply don't know' - JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to Trump's war with Iran

The bank said it "assumed" there would be economic red lines, like oil at $100 a barrel, that the US would be unwilling the cross.

* JP Morgan, a major investment bank, has admitted it cannot predict how oil prices will be impacted by the US-Iran conflict.
* In a rare note, the bank's analysts said they "simply don't know how to model the endgame" of the conflict and its effects on oil markets.
* The bank had assumed that there would be "economic red lines" that would prevent further escalation of the conflict, but these have been crossed without a clear exit strategy.
* Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel in recent weeks, inflation has not reached 4%, and interest rates on government borrowing have hit 5%.
* The bank estimates the "fair value" for oil to be around $90 a barrel, but says the market is pricing in the risk of further disruption to trade.
* Further risks to oil supply include ongoing conflicts in Yemen and Ukraine, and analysts say it's becoming increasingly difficult to sustain the assumption that global oil supply disruption is temporary.